As the first humanoid robots have begun to be deployed in various sectors, a recent study by Bank of America predicts a dramatic expansion of the market. Its analysts estimate that global annual sales of these embodied AIs will reach 1 million units by 2030, with a projection of 3 billion robots in service by 2060, most of which will be in homes.
Against the backdrop of Sino-American competition, the development of these AI-augmented robots is set to accelerate. China, at the forefront in deploying service robots in airports, hotels, shopping centers, and restaurants, has been focusing on mass production since 2023, aiming to become the world leader in this field, an ambition recently reiterated during the Council of Ministers.
Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics and Tesla dominate the American market. Atlas, the humanoid robot from the first, is in testing phases at Hyundai Motor Group factories, Digit, from Agility, is deployed by Amazon for logistics tasks. Tesla, on the other hand, presented last October the 3rd version of Optimus, which it is testing in its own factories, anticipating the start of mass production in 2026. (Notably, Aldebaran, a symbolic French pioneer in humanoid robotics, is in an extremely difficult situation, seeking a buyer).
According to Bank of America analysts, this rapid growth will be spurred by a significant decrease in production costs, dropping from $35,000 per unit in 2025 to around $17,000 by 2030. A cost that will approach the model G1 ($16,000) presented by China's Unitree at CES 2025.
They estimate that 65% of these versatile robots will be used in domestic environments, 32% in the services sector, and 3% in industry. This distribution indicates a shift in usage towards personal assistance and automation of daily tasks, rather than the manufacturing industry, traditionally dominated by non-humanoid robots used for specific tasks.
The drivers of this acceleration
Among the key factors for this massive adoption, several technological and societal trends are emerging:
- AI and machine learning: advances in computer vision, voice recognition, and adaptability allow humanoids to integrate into complex interactions;
- Miniaturization and reduction in component costs: the accessibility of advanced sensors and robotic materials reduces manufacturing prices;
- Aging population and labor shortages: many countries, like Japan, anticipate a growing need for assistance for the elderly and automation in strained sectors.
Analysts particularly highlight the massive investments by Tesla, Met, and Nvidia in this sector. OpenAI, for its part, was among the first to invest in Physical Intelligence, a young San Francisco-based startup developing a versatile AI model capable of operating various robots and physical devices for multiple applications. It also collaborated until last February with Figure AI, a company specializing in humanoid robots.
The large-scale integration of humanoid robots could reshape the labor market. It could be a solution to labor shortages but also raises questions about the risk of massive job displacement. This massive adoption raises the question of their ethical and social integration. And you, would you be ready to live with a humanoid robot?